Chances of making the Hall of Fame were always small, and got smaller

In the past, some of the greatest names in the game got close, only to fail to reach the 80 percent threshold.

From 1999 to 2006, 12 modern or senior candidates reached that level and weren’t selected, including Howie Long, Lynn Swann (twice), Jack Youngblood, Michael Irvin, Harry Carson (twice), Bob Hayes, Rayfield Wright, Bill Parcells, George Young, and Bob Kuechenberg.

With the new rules, we could be getting back to those days, as the guys who make the cut to the final seven will likely be names that all fans will scream about being certain Hall of Famers. The same is true of those who make the final 10 and most of the final 15, honestly.

If you want to dig deeper into the math, ask the analytics department.

Panthers vice president of football analytics Eric Eager, who knows numbers slightly better than a sports writer, was good enough to explain the chances for any player to make it in his language:

“Assuming each finalist has a five out of seven = 71.4 percent chance to be chosen by a given voter, the chances of getting 80 percent of the vote (40 voters to choose him) out of 49 ballots is (using the binomial distribution): 7.3 percent.”

Obviously, these guys aren’t the same — some of these players are better or more accomplished than others — so all things aren’t equal.

But the lesson is that the chances of any one of the 15 players getting in is small to begin with and smaller this year than they’ve been in the past.