The 12-team College Football Playoff will again include the five highest-ranked conference champions — a guarantee that expands the pool of candidates to include any team that has a shot at winning its conference.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 32 teams — the most in the CFP era — with at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoff. They come from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but how many of them can actually win the national title?
“Four or five,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said.
“I’d say there’s eight,” Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer said.
This list will shrink by November, but below it starts with 32 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also see their chance to win the national title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The CFP selection committee doesn’t always agree with the computers, though. Here’s a look at how they will view the 32 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 83.9% | Win national title: 24.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Longhorns should be in — either as the SEC champ, or through an at-large bid. But ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game, and that’s not going to happen with a first-time starting quarterback — no matter what his last name is. There’s an extraordinary amount of pressure on Arch Manning, and while he could lead the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he’s going to need some margin for error along the way. Texas will have four new starting offensive linemen, and it is replacing its top three pass catchers from last season. The Longhorns are a playoff team — but there are too many questions heading into the season opener against Ohio State to declare them a preseason No. 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 at Georgia. Yes, the season opener at Ohio State might be the biggest game of the year, but there will be plenty of time to make up for a loss. History tells us it’s better to lose early than late (See: Notre Dame vs. NIU). The Longhorns’ game at Georgia, though, comes at the most critical point in the season, when the conference standings and a guaranteed first-round CFP bye are within reach.
What the committee will like: Road wins. Texas has ample…
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