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Advanced metrics show Bengals are heavy road favorites week 2

Advanced metrics show Bengals are heavy road favorites week 2

The 2022 season got off to a rough start for the Dallas Cowboys, with a 19-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.  To add salt to the wound, the Cowboys suffered injuries to Dak Prescott, Jayron Kearse, Connor McGovern and Tarell Basham that will require each player to miss Week 2.

The Cowboys are turning to veteran backup Cooper Rush at quarterback as they attempt to avoid an 0-2 start.  In the seven seasons the Cowboys have started 0-2, they have only finished the season with a winning record one time, 1993.  The other six seasons resulted in the Cowboys winning six games or less.

The Cowboys will attempt to bounce back against the 0-1 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals lost their season-opener, 23-20, in an overtime thriller vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As fans turn the page, here’s a review of the advanced stats to see what the numbers say.

“We’re onto Cincinnati.”- Bill Belichick

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) – Football Outsiders

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.

With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively.  On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.

Information via Football Outsiders.

DVOA Offense

As one would expect following a poor performance that resulted in just three points, the Cowboys offense did not reflect favorably in DVOA this past week.

The Bengals offense gained more yards, had less penalties and scored more points. However, they ranked just two spots higher in total offensive DVOA. How does this happen? Four interceptions, a fumble and seven sacks.

The Cowboys finished last in passing DVOA with a -50% and last in total offense DVOA at -49%.  They were able to edge the Bengals out in rushing DVOA, finishing 14th with a -6.1%.

The Bengals win offensive DVOA with a 2-1 lead.

Offensive Advantage: Bengals

DVOA Defense

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

As a brief reminder, while we are looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.

The…

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