Forecasting QB competitions after the 2023 NFL Draft: Three different rookies poised to start Week 1

Eleven different quarterbacks came off the board in the first 150 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, a record for the common era of the selection process. It reinforces the league-wide hunt for quality production under center, and already several of the incoming rookies are expected to be Opening Day difference-makers for their respective teams.

With that in mind, we decided to reassess the state of the position and, with the draft officially in the rear view, forecast all of the likely QB competitions set for this summer. It’s possible a veteran or two could still be on the move; it wasn’t until late August of last year, remember, that Jimmy Garoppolo agreed to a surprise contract restructure to stay with the 49ers. But for the most part, QB depth charts are primed for the 2023 season.

Here’s an early look at which teams figure to host legitimate competitions in the lead-up to Week 1, as well as predicted winners:

This is life after Tom Brady. After declining to take a swing at Kentucky’s Will Levis near the top of the draft, the Bucs are banking on Mayfield’s moxie resurfacing around a better, healthier supporting cast than he had with the Panthers and Rams in 2022. Former coach Bruce Arians has talked up Trask’s more traditional pocket passing, but the former second-rounder has thrown all of nine passes in two years. Even if Mayfield proves reckless down the road, he’s got the edge to manage a veteran lineup.

Projected Week 1 starter: Baker Mayfield

General manager Chris Ballard deliberately tempered expectations for Richardson, the No. 4 overall pick, in his initial post-draft press conference, and new coach Shane Steichen may prefer to ease the electric but erratic Florida product into his offense. In that case, Minshew makes sense as a placeholder, coming over from the Eagles system that Steichen oversaw. And yet owner Jim Irsay has since suggested Richardson will start at some point in 2023, starting the clock on his debut. Once the QBs actually hit the grass and Richardson’s elite athleticism is on display, Indy could be hard-pressed to keep his star power out of the lineup.

Projected Week 1 starter: Anthony Richardson

Howell got a single start to close his 2022 rookie season, flashing a big arm on an uneven team, but that was enough to earn coach Ron Rivera’s praise early this offseason. It was also — somewhat inexplicably — enough to prevent Washington from adding…