John Harbaugh Reflects on Fourth-Down Bills Decision

After sleeping on it, Head Coach John Harbaugh is just as confident in his decision to go for the touchdown instead of a field goal that would have given the Ravens a lead late in Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Harbaugh said he isn’t going to make the “safe decision” just because it takes the heat off him.

“I feel the same way as I felt during the game and after the game,” Harbaugh said before outlining the different scenarios. “I really stand by that decision, 100 percent.”

At the crux of Harbaugh’s argument is the analytics that teams do not stand a particularly good chance of winning when holding a three-point lead with so much time on the clock (about four minutes). His decision was not an indictment on his own defense rather than a belief in the league-wide stats.

“I trust our players implicitly in everything,” Harbaugh said. “As a coach, I trust our offense to make plays and extend leads and all that; and I trust our defense to get stops; and I trust our special teams to make plays and flip field positions. So, you start with that.

“There’s nothing less safe in the National Football League than a three-point lead, a four-point lead, a five-point lead or a six-point lead. That’s kind of been proven.”

Had the Ravens kicked the field goal, the Bills would have started the next possession around the 25-yard line. They would have been in four-down mode at least until they reached comfortable field-goal range. Beyond that, they had plenty of time to score a touchdown (as was proven in the Bills’ resulting drive).

Harbaugh felt the Ravens’ chances of winning were better by taking the gamble of trying to score on fourth down from the goal line. Baltimore’s play should have worked out, as Devin Duvernay came wide open in the corner of the end zone, but the Bills’ pass rush blocked Lamar Jackson’s vision. He didn’t see Duvernay until it was too late and Jordan Poyer intercepted Jackson in the end zone.

It was the worst-case scenario because the Bills got the ball…