The Giants take on the Packers (3-1) in London on Sunday. After losing their season opener, the Packers have won three straight games, including an overtime 27-24 victory at home against the Patriots in Week 4.
When the Packers have the ball…
1. Aaron Rodgers is still the Packers quarterback but their offense has evolved to focus around the running game. The Packers rank 10th in the NFL in overall run rate (44.8%) with their run tendencies hovering around the same rank on 1st-and-10 and in first halves of games. They want to run the ball.
AJ Dillon has nine more carries than Aaron Jones this season, even though Jones has 126 more yards. Dillon is a bruising 250-pound back who is difficult to bring down between the tackles, and will move the pile forward. He is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and has only four runs of 10+ yards this season, but he can grind down a defense, especially late in games. Jones is the more versatile weapons with 12 catches to go along with his 48 carries this season. He is averaging 6.81 yards per carry with 12 runs of 10+ yards. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones has forced 18 missed tackles this season, which ranks fourth in the NFL. His forced missed tackle rate of .37 ranks second to Nick Chubb in the NFL.
The Packers are seventh in the NFL in rush yards per game (145) and are tied for fifth with 18 runs of 10+ yards. Green Bay has not been a proficient first-down team, averaging only 5.24 yards per play (24th).
2. There is a large discrepancy between where the Packers rank in yards per game (377.5 – sixth) and in points per game (18.8 – tied for 21st). The answer can be found in two different areas. The Packers are last in goal-to-go situations, scoring only one touchdown on three chances inside the 10. Outside the red zone, they have been limited to one field goal.
The Packers have been strong on third downs, converting 42.6% (ninth), but have turned it over seven times this season (-3 turnover ratio) including one giveaway in goal-to-go situations. The Packers’ 13.3% offensive DVOA ranks eighth in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders.
3. Aaron Rodgers is completing 69% of his passes for 233.8 yards with six touchdowns and three touchdowns. PFF tracks what they consider “big-time throws” and he ranks third (6.1%) among those with at least 25 attempts.
Some of the advanced metrics tell different stories: Via ESPN, his 43.1 QBR ranks 22nd in the NFL and his EPA (expected points added) of 10.6 ranks 23rd. NFL’s…
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