Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Buffalo Bills are looking a whole lot like the best team in football. No, they’re not undefeated like the Philadelphia Eagles; but they are 5-1, and their underlying metrics are even better than Philadelphia’s as they prepare to play host to Aaron Rodgers and the reeling Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.
The Bills rank second in the NFL in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, according to TruMedia, and the Bills are the only team in the league to rank inside the top five in both categories. They’re also second in offensive DVOA and first in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, as well as eighth in special teams DVOA.
It is not at all difficult to figure out where the lion’s share of the credit for this start should be going. On offense, it’s Josh Allen, and specifically the Allen-Stefon Diggs connection. And on defense, it’s the terrifying pass rush that has been taken to a new stratosphere by Von Miller, who has unlocked things for defensive linemate Gregory Rousseau.
Since the Bills’ Week 14 game against the Buccaneers last season — which came six days after the crazy wind game they played against the Patriots — Allen is 328 of 507 (64.7%) for 3,808 yards (7.5 per attempt), 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also having rushed for 732 yards and five more scores on 111 carries (6.6 yards per attempt). In case you’re counting, that’s 4,540 total yards (349.2 per game) and 41 total touchdowns (3.2 per game) in just 13 contests (including playoffs). That’s a full-season pace of 4,980 passing yards and 47 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, along with 957 yards and another seven scores on the ground. It would be arguably the best quarterback season we’ve ever seen. And Allen is in the midst of it right now.
The major difference in Allen’s play this year is how aggressively he is taking what defenses are giving him early in the play. Allen’s time-to-throw average is down significantly from the past two seasons, according to TruMedia, while the share of his passes that have been released within 2.5 seconds of the snap has skyrocketed and is now nearly equal to the share of throws that are released in 2.6 seconds or more.
| 2020 | 0.22 | 69.2 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 3.02 | 35.3 |
| 2021 | 0.13 | 63.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 2.92 | 40.9 |
| 2022 | 0.30 | 66.9 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 2.66 | 49.8 |
Where he used to have to be coaxed into throwing the ball underneath or throwing to his running…
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