The FCS playoff selection show is days away and with one game left to play, it’s time to take a look at the FCS at-large bubble. Let’s take a deep dive into all of the cases of teams on the edge of the playoff field.
Guarantee-ish
First, we’ll start with the at-larges that have almost a guaranteed shot — in my opinion — to earn an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs regardless of Week 12’s results:
- No. 2 Sacramento State
- No. 3 Montana State
- No. 4 North Dakota State
- No. 7 UIW
- No. 8 William & Mary
- No. 10 Weber State
- No. 11 Richmond
- No. 13 Furman
- No. 15 Southeast Missouri State
- No. 18 Elon
From that group, there are seven at-large bids and potentially nine total, depending on how conference races shake out. Remember, there are only 13 at-large bids available.
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At-Large Impact
Now that those are out of the way, let’s break down a few conference races that will impact the at-large race.
CAA
If you’re an FCS bubble team, you do not want New Hampshire to win the CAA. William & Mary and Richmond’s resumes are too strong to be left out of the FCS playoff picture. New Hampshire’s resume, on the other hand, is a bit shakier with two FCS losses. Bubble teams are more comparable to New Hampshire than William & Mary and Richmond.
OVC
If UT Martin and Southeast Missouri State have the same result in Week 12, every bubble team’s eyes will be on the OVC’s coin flip. If you’re on the bubble, you almost need Southeast Missouri State to win the OVC because if not, the Redhawks have a high probability of grabbing an at-large bid.
AUTO-BIDS: We’re tracking every FCS automatic qualifying bid and scenario
FCS bubble
Now, let’s break down the cases for and against every FCS bubble team.
Sorted by ranking, then alphabetically.
No. 12 Montana
Case for (with win)
If Montana defeats No. 3 Montana State to finish the season 8-3, it’s in the playoffs.
Case for (with loss)
If Montana…
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