Cowboys playoff outlook: Where Dallas stands in NFC, paths to improvement, prediction

The 9-3 Dallas Cowboys have been a wrecking ball and arguably the NFL‘s most dominant team this season. Wins and losses are the only metric that matters in the NFL when it comes to playoff position, but if there were a committee that factored in “style points” to decide playoff position, as is the case in college football, the Cowboys would be sitting pretty.

Their +127-point differential leads the NFL, ranks as Dallas’ best through 12 games since 2007 when it earned the top seed in the NFC, and it’s the first time the Cowboys lead the league in point differential through Week 13 since 1994. The 1994 season was Barry Switzer’s first as the Cowboys head coach after Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones had a tense parting of ways. That team went 12-4 before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion San Francisco 49ers, led by Hall of Famers Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Deion Sanders and Bryant Young. The following season, Dallas went 12-4 again before winning its third and final Super Bowl title of the 1990s, the last time the Cowboys advanced as far as the NFC Championship Game.

Best point differential in 2022

* First time leading NFL in point differential through Week 13 since 1994 (+156)

The Cowboys scoring defense has been consistent all year, ranking third in the NFL by allowing only 17.2 points per game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s unit has only surrendered 20 or more points in only four games this year, tied for the third-fewest in the NFL, thanks to linebacker Micah Parsons making a Defensive Player of the Year push and cornerback Trevon Diggs‘ improvement. 

However, the Cowboys offense has now caught up with the defense, jumping from being ranked 23rd in scoring offense through the first six weeks of the season, 18.3 points per game, to now also ranking third in scoring offense, putting up 27.8 points per game, tied with the Buffalo Bills’ season output. The cause for their scoring boost: quarterback Dak Prescott’s return from his thumb injury in Week 7. Dallas averages a league-best 37.2 points per game with him back on the field since Week 7. The Cowboys scoring rebound has been downright historic with their 199 points in the last five games, since Prescott’s second game back on the field, ranking as the most in a five-game span in team history. 

Cowboys offense since Prescott’s Week 7 return