Keys to victory over Tennessee in Week 15

The Chargers stare down yet another must-win game on Sunday against a Titans team currently leading their division. With a victory, Los Angeles’ playoff chances jump from 55% to 76%.

Here are six keys to a Week 15 win.

Air it out

The Titans allow the highest neutral pass rate in the league, a stat in which the Chargers’ offense also leads the NFL in. Tennessee also has a stout run defense, even with Denico Autry (knee) out on Sunday, as Jeffery Simmons has quickly become one of the best run defenders in the league. LA has struggled to run the ball all season, especially between the tackles, meaning Sunday’s game plan should probably avoid trying more than necessary. We’ve seen what this offense can do with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both healthy last week, and asking Justin Herbert to shoulder most of the load on offense isn’t much different than the last few weeks.

Play action

Tennessee has the fifth-worst defense against play action by EPA/dropback, which plays well into the hands of the Chargers. This defensive struggle is twofold: the Titans often sell out to stop the run, making them one of the better ground defenses in the league. They also have an exploitable secondary, especially with Kristian Fulton (groin) out on Sunday. LA benefited hugely from running more play-action last week against Miami – getting Herbert on the move with half rolls and bootlegs helped mask some of the struggles along the offensive line and opened up more avenues for Herbert to make plays. On Sunday, continuing that pattern should pay dividends for LA.

Convert in the red zone

The Chargers scored touchdowns on only two of their six red zone opportunities last week, bringing their season conversion rate to 49.7%, 27th in the NFL. We’ve dissected and diagnosed why this is the case many times here at Chargers Wire, but here’s the short version. LA can’t run the ball in short-yardage situations because they don’t trust Joshua Kelley for some reason. They also refuse to throw the ball into the actual end zone. Against the Titans, assuming all else is equal, I’d expect Tennessee to convert in the red zone more often than the Chargers, considering that they’re the ones with Derrick Henry. As such, it’s imperative that LA scores touchdowns, not field goals, once they get inside the 20.

Limit the run

Limiting Derrick Henry is easier said than done, I understand. But in four of Tennessee’s six losses, Henry has rushed for 82 yards or less,…