NFL Week 16 picks, best bets: Dolphins ruin Christmas for Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady blasts Cardinals

It’s pretty unbelievable that we have just three weeks of NFL regular season left. Gambling can get pretty tricky here down the stretch. Which teams will rise to the occasion and which teams will flounder? Will the teams already eliminated from playoff contention show up to play, or are they already looking forward to 2023?

Week 16 features plenty of juicy matchups. The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets face off Thursday night in a battle of two teams looking to get in the playoff picture, the Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles, who may not have Jalen Hurts, and Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers to South Beach for a date with the Miami Dolphins. I’m calling it now, this week will be awesome.

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Top five picks ATS record: 36-38-1
Overall ATS record: 116-101-7
Straight up record: 146-76-2

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

It appeared the Panthers had found new life with Sam Darnold under center, but I think we saw last week that if the run game isn’t going, Carolina will have a tough time getting into the win column. The Panthers averaged 1.3 yards per attempt, and finished the 24-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers with just 21 rushing yards. As for the Lions, they have won six out of their last seven games, and have a chance at a playoff spot. They are also a good team to bet on, as Dan Campbell is 10-4 ATS on the year (tied for second-best in the NFL).

The Lions’ win over the Jets last week was not too impressive, but it did stand out that Jets leading rusher Zonovan Knight managed just 1.8 yards per carry after a couple good weeks of running the ball. Give me the Lions. 

The pick: Lions -2.5
Projected score: Lions 24-20

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)