NFL Week 18 odds, picks: Patriots pull out win in potential Belichick send-off, Cowboys cover vs. Commanders

As remarkable as it might sound, we’ve reached the end of the road of the 2023 regular season. Week 18 is upon us and when we reconvene for my picks column next week, most of the league will be home starting up their offseason plans. I’ve rounded out the year on a rather high note, owning a 20-12 ATS mark over the last two weeks and I’ll look to keep that going as we wrap up the regular season. 

Week 18 is often a bit tricky given that the motivations for teams are askew. Some will elect to rest players with playoff positions already locked up, while others will be a full go to further secure their spot for a Lombardi Trophy chase. This week, I’m targeting what could be Bill Belichick’s final game with the Patriots and a key AFC South showdown between the Texans and Colts. As always, we’ll kick things off with my five locks of the week.

2023 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 42-43-1
ATS: 133-112-11
ML: 162-94

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Texans at Colts 

• Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)  

This is essentially a playoff game for the Colts and Texans. The winner punches their ticket to the playoffs and sets themselves up with the possibility of winning the AFC South if the Jaguars lose to the Titans on Sunday. They are relatively evenly matched, but C.J. Stroud is the X-factor. He gives Houston the clear advantage at quarterback over Gardner Minshew and was solid in his return from his concussion last week against Tennessee. With the rust dusted off of him for this matchup against the Colts, he should find success against a defense that he threw for 384 yards against back in Week 2. The Texans are also 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven divisional road games. 

Projected score: Texans 28, Colts 24
The pick: Texans +1

Jets at Patriots

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, fubo)  

This could very well be the last game Bill Belichick coaches for the New England Patriots and it’s hard to imagine that the players aren’t aware of that possibility either. With that in mind, I can’t fathom this Patriots team laying over in a game that has historical significance even if they are eliminated from playoff contention. New England has won 15 straight games against the Jets and has won 12 straight at home. The Jets offense continues to look lost and is last in the league on third down and in the red zone, so there is no real threat of this unit raining on Belichick’s…