The 2024 NFL Draft is around the corner, and no position is poised to get more attention than quarterback. Everyone wants an elite one, and most struggle to secure one. No doubt that several will try to unearth the next superstar starting April 25.
No fewer than four signal-callers are widely expected to come off the board on the first night of the draft this year. USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy have all been projected as first-rounders, with Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix other Day 1 possibilities.
What can history tell us about how many of these inevitable first-round quarterback investments will actually pan out? We’re glad you asked. We’ve reviewed every single Day 1 selection over the last 15 years and assigned “grades” for each:
- Home run: A bona fide star with championship-caliber talent, production and/or potential
- Solid result: A good, maybe even great, QB who’s still got sizable hurdles to clear
- Mixed result: A QB who flashed but, for whatever reason, did not or is not panning out
- Incomplete: A QB who’s yet to fully prove himself
- Miss: A clear flop as a short- and/or long-term starter
Some of the quarterbacks straddle the lines more than others, and we’d be remiss if we didn’t partially excuse some of the misses for the situations in which they struggled (you can’t control where you’re drafted, after all). But let this recap paint a picture of the unpredictability that comes with the hunt for a star signal-caller:
2023
Young looked two steps behind NFL speed while working with a porous supporting cast in Carolina, but even his ill-fated debut can’t define his career. Not until we’ve seen him under new coach Dave Canales. Stroud is clearly trending upward, flashing MVP material as a confident downfield attacker; he’s the biggest reason Houston should scare opponents in 2024. And Richardson is a total unknown, showing dual-threat dynamism before injuries robbed him of almost his entire rookie season.
2022
Pickett had the misfortune of operating on a sluggish offense with shoddy protection for much of his two years at the helm, and while team brass preached patience, touting his late-game toughness, their actions spoke louder than words this offseason, as he was quickly dumped via trade to the Philadelphia Eagles in favor of Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields.
2021
Lawrence passed the eye…
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