A record six QBs were drafted in the top 12 in this year’s draft. Many expected QBs to be overdrafted but not like this. Absolutely bonkers. Now there will be immense pressure on this group to succeed, plus ample opportunity.
If any of us claimed to know how the careers of this historic class will play out, we would be lying. However, we can ballpark it and use history to provide answers to some frequently asked questions about first-round QBs for this group (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix):
1. How many will be successful?
Two or three most likely. Only 41% of QBs drafted in the first round from 2011-20 (13/32) signed a second contract with their draft team.
Of the previous two mega QB classes (2018, 2021), only two of the 10 1st-round QBs signed a second contract with their draft team (Trevor Lawrence will make it three). The 2021 class was a disaster.
2. How many will have a standout rookie season?
Probably one. Think 2023 C.J. Stroud, 2021 Mac Jones, 2020 Justin Herbert. 2012 Robert Griffin III. 2011 Cam Newton.
There were 69 QBs drafted in the first round from 2000 to 2023. 10 or fewer did ANY of the following as rookies:
- Make a Pro Bowl (10)
- Average 20 fantasy points per game (nine)
- Start a playoff game (nine)
- Throw for 4,000 yards (five).
3. How often will they play as rookies?
A LOT. For the most part. Rookie QBs drafted in the first round average 10 starts in the last 10 seasons.
Drake Maye could use development with the Patriots. But consider that only one top-three QB has started five or fewer games as a rookie in the last 15 seasons. Trey Lance (two).
4. How many QBs sit out their rookie years?
Since Michael Penix Jr. was controversially drafted by the Falcons, it’s worth mentioning Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles but started every game in six of the past nine seasons.
Jordan Love is the only first-round QB since 2012 with zero starts as a rookie (among 37 picks). Patrick Mahomes had one.
Overall, nine first-round QBs had zero starts as rookies since 2000. Three had zero starts through two seasons (Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers) and one through three seasons (Aaron Rodgers).
- 2020 Jordan Love
- 2011 Jake Locker
- 2007 Brady Quinn
- 2005 Aaron Rodgers (none through three seasons)
- 2005 Jason Campbell
- 2004 Philip Rivers (none through two seasons)
- 2004 J.P. Losman
- 2003
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