College football 2024 ifs list – how contenders come together

Welcome to the 2024 college football season, where the playoff is bigger, the (remaining) power conferences are, too, Nick Saban is working for ESPN and just about everybody needs new receivers (and maybe defensive backs and defensive linemen, as well).

After a couple of years of epic change off the field, we’ll see some of the fruits of that change on the field this fall, but the early list of national title favorites looks awfully familiar. Georgia leads the way, according to both the metrics and ESPN BET, with Ohio State, Oregon, and last year’s semifinalists — Texas and Alabama — among the Dawgs’ chief competitors. What stands in the way of these teams and the ultimate prize? What questions will they need to answer between now and January?

According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national champion over the past 23 seasons has begun the season with title odds worse than +5000. Could the College Football Playoff’s expansion to 12 teams alter that trend? Perhaps. But while upsets could bust brackets, the best teams are still the most likely to win three to four games and take the title. So let’s stick with the +5000 barrier: Here are the 16 teams that meet those standards per ESPN BET. They are sorted by the number of “ifs” that need to break their way to make them champs. (As always, we’re not going to worry about obstacles like injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal.)

Jump to an ‘if’ tier:
2 | 3 | 4 | 5

Two ifs

If … new playmakers emerge. There are plenty of reasons why Kirby Smart’s Dawgs start out atop the field. They’re 42-2 over the past three seasons. Even with last year’s untimely loss to Alabama costing them a spot in the CFP, they were almost certainly the second-best team in the country at absolute worst. And unlike five of the top nine title favorites, they return their starting quarterback (Carson Beck), along with four offensive line starters and 10 of the 17 defenders with 200-plus snaps.

There’s turnover in the skill corps, however. Last year’s two leading rushers and three of five leading receivers, including all-world tight end Brock Bowers, are gone, and while there are former blue-chippers everywhere you look, it’s still going to be a pretty new unit. Florida transfer Trevor Etienne will join sophomores Branson Robinson and Roderick Robinson II in the backfield. The…