AP Top 25 reaction – 2024-25 college football predictions

You know college football season is right around the corner when the Associated Press releases its preseason Top 25.

Georgia is on top of the poll, comfortably ahead of No. 2 Ohio State. Big Ten newcomer Oregon ranks third, SEC newcomer Texas is fourth and Alabama, minus Nick Saban, is fifth.

To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — the Top 25 teams could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we used the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2024, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated. In other words, we identified the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for every team.

What can we expect for each team in the preseason AP Top 25? If everything goes right, what might each team’s record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our college football reporters which game in the early part of each team’s schedule would give us a good indication of whether the team would be more likely to reach its ceiling or finish closer to its floor.

Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4

Key game: vs. Clemson at Atlanta, Aug. 31

The Bulldogs’ season opener against the Tigers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will provide the first look at a revamped passing game that lost star tight end Brock Bowers and receivers Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Quarterback Carson Beck will play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, but Dominic Lovett, Dillon Bell, Arian Smith and others will be asked to step up on the perimeter. How quickly can Beck develop in-game chemistry with his new pass catchers against what should be another salty Clemson defense? — Mark Schlabach

Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 8-4

Key game: vs. Iowa, Oct. 5

The Buckeyes will wait a while for a true gauge, as they don’t face a nonleague opponent from a power conference. An Ohio State offense pegged to be among the nation’s best will face an Iowa defense that annually is among the stingiest and most opportunistic and features stars such as defensive back Sebastian Castro. Coach Ryan Day also is seeking more consistency from the offensive line, which should be stressed by defensive end Deontae…