Week 6 in college football was bananas.
It was the first time since 2016 that five of the top 11 teams ranked in the Associated Press poll lost on the same day. And it was the first time — ever — that multiple top-five SEC teams lost against unranked opponents.
So what does it all mean?
The 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee have bad losses and teams with multiple losses to consider — and the picture will keep changing. One thing that won’t change: Alabama beat Georgia on Sept. 28. It’s unlikely the committee would ignore that head-to-head result, even after the Crimson Tide’s ugly loss at Vanderbilt. The tiebreaker was accounted for in this week’s projection.
This is a snapshot of what the committee might do Tuesday — through six weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket could look like based on the committee’s projected top 12 for this week — plus a glance at eight more teams that can play their way in and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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Byes | First-round matchups
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Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns moved into the top spot following Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday, earning the No. 1 seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is also based on Texas potentially being the committee’s No. 1 team overall on Selection Day. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas has a 91% chance to reach the CFP and a 23% shot to win the national title.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second-ranked conference champion, behind only Texas. This week, the top two seeds mirror the committee’s top two because both Texas and Ohio State are projected conference champions. It won’t always shake out that way. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has the best chance to win out (27.1%), followed by Texas (21.9%).
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champions and the third-ranked conference champ. Miami avoided a disastrous scenario Saturday with its comeback win at Cal. Because of that, Miami is now No. 2 in the country in ESPN’s strength of…
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