The Championship Week slate gives us only nine FBS games, but much remains up in the air as it pertains to the 12-team College Football Playoff. Nine playoff bids are about set, which means three aren’t. About nine teams still have hopes of a top-four seed and a first-round bye. Five teams could play their way into the field with a win.
From Friday night’s Group of 5 showcase (headlined by Boise State-UNLV) through Saturday night’s potential bid-stealing ACC championship game, let’s walk through the stakes, storylines and matchups that will define the most consequential Championship Week college football has seen.
(All times are Eastern.)
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Oregon-Texas | Texas-Georgia
SMU-Clemson | Iowa State-Arizona State
Boise State-UNLV | G5 title games
Small-school showcase
Big Ten: A 77% chance the winner gets the 1-seed
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State (Saturday, 8 p.m., CBS)
Eight years ago, James Franklin’s Penn State team sneaked into the Big Ten championship game thanks to Ohio State’s classic overtime win over Michigan. As a slight underdog against Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions suffered a number of early glitches and fell behind 28-7 but scored TDs on four straight possessions and charged back to win 38-31. They’ve waited nearly a decade for another opportunity.
On Saturday, thanks again to the Michigan-Ohio State result — this time, a stunning Michigan upset — Penn State finally returns to Indianapolis. This time it will face a debutant: In its first year in the Big Ten, Oregon will play in its first Big Ten title game. (With up to three more neutral-site games remaining this season, I’m guessing we won’t see a ton of Oregon fans making the trip from the Pacific Northwest to Indy. It’s a much easier trip for Penn State fans, however.)
Oregon and Penn State appear to be two of the three teams that could come away with the CFP’s No. 1 seed. Oregon will obviously land that spot with a win, but if the Nittany Lions spring an upset, the top spot will likely either go to Texas (if the Longhorns beat Georgia) or PSU (if Georgia beats UT for a second time).
If Oregon makes a solid playoff run, Dillon Gabriel could end up being college football’s career passing yardage leader. With 18,140 career yards, Gabriel is just 1,077 behind Case Keenum. That’s about four games’ worth of yards, and Oregon might have four games left. First, however, Gabriel will…
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