Way-too-early 2025 college football coaching hot seat tiers

The last mind-bending college football coaching carousel took place in the fall/winter of 2021, sparked by two highly successful coaches — Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly — who voluntarily jumped between top-tier programs.

Usually, no one chooses to leave Oklahoma or Notre Dame, but Riley and Kelly did, moving to USC and LSU, respectively. The cycle included moves at all four programs, plus changes at Oregon, Florida, Miami, Washington, TCU and Virginia Tech.

The 2025 coaching carousel could be the next to send the college football world spinning. Riley and Kelly are involved, this time not of their own accord, after underwhelming performances at their current jobs. Neither will enter the season with anywhere near as much pressure as Brent Venables, who is just 22-17 at OU after replacing Riley, already racking up seven more losses than Riley had during his historic five-year tenure.

After a predictably quiet carousel this year, where the splashiest move came at a middling ACC program (Bill Belichick to North Carolina), the next one could be bonkers. Not all hot-seat situations are the same, as contracts and buyouts — along with the administrators and donors making the decisions — loom large.

Here’s a look at whom to watch in the 2025 coaching cycle, sorted by tiers.

Jump to a tier:
Don’t do that again | We want this to work
It’ll cost us | Need progress| Don’t backslide
Retirement watch | Group of 5

Don’t do that again

Not much has gone right for Norvell or FSU since the CFP snub in 2023. The Noles beat only one FBS opponent in 2024 and tumbled to 130th nationally in scoring and 88th in points allowed. The 2-10 mark is FSU’s worst season since 1974, two years before Bobby Bowden arrived as coach.

Norvell will reboot with two notable new coordinators in Gus Malzahn (offense) and Tony White (defense). FSU’s transfer portal mastery fizzled in 2024, and Norvell will need quarterback Thomas Castellanos and other newcomers to hit this fall. Norvell’s post-2023 contract put him in the top 10 nationally in salary and will work in his favor, especially at a school not flush with cash. But he can’t afford another face-plant this fall.

Few coaches in the past 30 years have matched Gundy’s consistency and longevity at his alma mater, which he led to 18 consecutive bowl appearances — and 10 AP top-20…