The semifinal round of the 2025 College Football Playoff begins with a showdown from the Sunshine State as Notre Dame takes on Penn State in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
Both teams advanced to penultimate round of the playoff with dominant wins. Notre Dame took care of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl behind a big game from quarterback Riley Leonard. Meanwhile Drew Allar and Tyler Warren showcased a special connection and had two touchdowns to lift Penn State over the Boise State Broncos last Friday.
Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Penn State and the line his since increased to -2.5. The total opened at 44.5 points and has stayed the same.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
7-seed Notre Dame vs. 6-seed Penn State
Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Spread: Notre Dame (-2.5)
Moneyline: Notre Dame (-135), Penn State (+115)
Over/under: 45.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Notre Dame -0.5 (Even), Penn State +0.5 (-120)
First-half moneyline: Notre Dame (-125), Penn State (-105)
First-half total points: 21.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Notre Dame total points: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Penn State total points: 21.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Notre Dame by 1.5 (54.3% chance to win)
Considering Notre Dame’s dominance this season, this matchup promises to be more sizzle than fizzle.
Notre Dame’s offense sputtered in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, with the running game reduced to a whisper. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined for just 56 yards on 16 carries, leaving quarterback Riley Leonard to shoulder the entire offensive load. While Leonard’s dual-threat ability kept the Irish afloat, their biggest plays — a short-field turnover and a kickoff return touchdown — felt more like fortunate breaks than reliable production.
Penn State, on the other hand, dominated Boise State by silencing Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, holding him to a season-low 104 rushing yards, with just 39 in the first half. Their dominance extends beyond defense. Drew Allar, often labeled as a conservative passer, dealt two touchdowns to Tyler Warren and Penn State broke open the game late after Nick Singleton’s electrifying 58-yard touchdown run.
Notre Dame’s defensive issues only raise the stakes for Penn State….
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