Every prospect with a first-round grade, plus comps

Who are the real first-round prospects for the 2023 NFL draft? No, not the players who will be drafted in the first round, but rather the players who actually receive a true Round 1 grade. And yes, there is actually a difference.

There will be 31 players selected in the first round, thanks to the Miami Dolphins being penalized a selection for violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game. But NFL teams will not put first-round grades on 31-plus players. Why? The sacred first-round grade is reserved for a player who would be a Day 1 pick in any recent draft year, and the number varies by team and scouting department. One NFC team told me it limits its board to just 15 first-round grades to make scouts be more critical before handing them a special grade. Round 1 grades are reserved for players who are truly worthy of the early pick, not just those who will end up being one.

So I set out to list every player with a first-round grade and ended up with 17 names. My own rule of thumb is evaluating whether each player would have been a first-round pick in every one of the past five draft classes. The list could grow or shrink over the next five months following all-star events, the scouting combine and college pro days. But for now, here’s a look at the 2023 draft class’ Round 1 grades. Players’ overall rankings are in parentheses after their names.

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Quarterback (3)

Comp: Tua Tagovailoa

Young entered the 2022 season with high expectations as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and he answered the call with more than 3,000 passing yards, 27 TD throws and just five interceptions. He showed growth as a player, displaying poise, pocket awareness and field vision. There will be many questions about Young’s size (6-foot, 200 pounds), but his on-field work is that of a franchise quarterback.

Comp: Dak Prescott

Stroud puts up big numbers in the wide-open Ohio State passing game (3,340 passing yards, 37 TD throws and six interceptions). At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Stroud has really good touch accuracy to all levels of the field. He’s also an above-average runner and mover in the pocket when given room to operate. The hardest thing about evaluating Stroud is extrapolating his talent from the Buckeyes’ scheme and figuring out what he can do without that system around him.

Comp: Matthew Stafford

Levis’ numbers at Kentucky — 2,406 passing yards, 19…