The NFL has been a “.500 league” for a long time, at least until the muckety mucks at the league office decided to break everyone’s brains and bump the schedule to a despicably odd number with the addition of a 17th game. That’s a whole different rant but the point remains: most NFL teams are going to navigate towards 9-8 or 8-9.
Every year we have a few elite teams (11+ wins now, it used to be 10+) and a few trash teams (six or less now maybe?) in the league. The rest of the league hovers around that .500 range and will move up or move down depending on what kind of lucky breaks they get throughout the season.
An inflated piece of oblong pig butt tends to bounce in a pretty funky manner — the difference between a 10-7 team and a 7-10 team looks massive at the end of the season, but in reality those records are usually separated by something as minuscule as a few fumble recoveries.
Later this week I’ll be dropping my full divisional and playoff projections for the 2023 NFL season (yes it’s May, yes it’s early, no I don’t care and frankly if you’re reading this you shouldn’t be mad about it either). You can always find it on my CBS Sports page and no doubt I’ll post it on both Twitter (@WillBrinson) and Instagram (@WillBrinson) if you want to follow me at either spot. The latter two are also particularly helpful if you hate what I think your team will do and feel like yelling at me. All odds below are from Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars Win Total: 5.5 (under -170)
Brinson Projected Record: 3-14
Arizona could very well end up keeping Kyler Murray on ice longer, which would benefit both the player and the team for the long haul. I had runs with them at five and four wins and it felt super, super generous. Arizona should be like 50 percent to land the No. 1 overall pick with this roster and them holding Houston’s 2024 first-round selection.
Caesars Win Total: 8.0 (over -125)
Brinson Projected Record: 10-7
Color me bullish on the Falcons this season, even with the QB depth chart consisting of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heineicke. This roster has a real Titans-esque feel to it if the defensive veterans improve things on that side and Bijan Robinson can be a true workhorse. The Falcons actually fell to 3-4 at one point when I went through their schedule before ripping off a slew of wins. If they come out hot, this schedule sets up really well.
Caesars Win Total: 9.5 (over…
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