2024 NFL Draft: Ranking the quarterback prospects based on a college football performance formula

I had a brilliant idea back in 2012. What if I could create a formula based on a quarterback’s production in college that would give us an indication as to whether they would be successful at the NFL level?

Well, I failed. 

It turns out there is no way to predict a QB’s future based on past performance because there’s so much more that goes into the position than the player. There’s the environment, the surrounding team, the coaching staff and a lot of luck. However, while I’ve never been able to crack the QB code, I’ve continued using my formula every year since 2012 for a simple reason: It’s done a decent job, even if it doesn’t have all the answers.

Basically, the formula rates quarterbacks on throwing ability, not rushing. It’s broke down into three categories: against top-50 defenses, third-and-long/fourth-down situations and the red zone. After shoving all those numbers into the machine, it spits out a score for each player. That score is then taken and compared to the average score of the quarterback class being graded, which is added to the list of all the quarterbacks rated in the past.

Before we dive into further detail, let’s look at the scores for the 2024 class of quarterbacks.

The scoring is simple. Caleb Williams checks in with a score of 8.98%, which means his score was 8.98% better than the average score of the 14 quarterbacks listed. Joe Milton’s score of -3.38% means he finished 3.38% below the average. 

Of the 14 quarterbacks rated in this class, Williams and J.J. McCarthy are the only two to post scores that crack the top 20 of players graded since the 2012 class. Here’s the top 20.